Find where
the market
is wrong.
We're building independent ML models that price every prediction-market contract from scratch — then surface the gap. The engine is in development; everything shown here today is sample data, clearly marked.
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Why Kalshi and Polymarket Price World Cup Teams Differently
Pulled from both platforms' APIs in the same second on June 2, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket priced the World Cup favorites almost identically — France at 17.1% on both. The interesting gaps live in the thin corners, not the headlines. Here is how to read cross-platform divergence honestly.
How World Cup 2026 Prediction Markets Work: Reading the Winner Odds
On Kalshi and Polymarket, each 2026 World Cup team is its own yes/no contract, and the price reads straight off as a title probability — a 17-cent team means roughly a one-in-six chance. Here is how to read the board, why the prices add up to more than 100%, and where the numbers get unreliable.
World Cup Odds: Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks
In early June 2026, a sportsbook listed France at +450 while a prediction market had France near 17%. Both are 'odds,' but only one reads as a clean probability. Using a real 48-team board, here is why the sportsbook number is inflated by a ~30-point margin and the prediction-market price barely needs cleaning.