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RESEARCH / SPORTS / DRAFTKINGS
LA Lakers reach the NBA Finals in 2026
C CONFIDENCE
MARKET
19.0%
MODEL
21.0%
EDGE
+2.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Conference SRS rank #4 entering playoffs
↑ 45%
Star-player availability index (last 30d)
↑ 39%
Sportsbooks pricing similar markets ~17–22%
↓ 34%
Historical seed-4 conference-finals rate
↓ 30%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 15% – 27%
BRIER (SPORTS) 0.241
VS MARKET BASELINE +0.009
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 96
We have no statistically meaningful edge in sports yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-30 | Lakers reach 2020 NBA Finals | YES | 62% |
| 2023-05-22 | Lakers reach 2023 NBA Finals | NO | 27% |
| 2024-04-15 | Lakers reach 2024 NBA Finals | NO | 14% |