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RESEARCH / MACRO / POLYMARKET
Fed cuts rates by 25bps at June FOMC meeting
B+ CONFIDENCE
MARKET
34.0%
MODEL
51.0%
EDGE
+17.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
OIS-implied path leads spot rate cuts by ~18bp
↑ 62%
Recent CPI prints softer than consensus (3-mo)
↑ 48%
Fedspeak dovish vs. last 6 weeks (NLP score +0.31)
↑ 35%
Labor market still tight, payrolls > trend
↓ 41%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 45% – 57%
BRIER (MACRO) 0.182
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.029
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 312
We have measurable edge in macro over 312 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-18 | Fed cuts 50bps at September FOMC | YES | 62% |
| 2024-11-07 | Fed cuts 25bps at November FOMC | YES | 71% |
| 2025-03-19 | Fed holds at March FOMC | YES | 58% |