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RESEARCH / POLITICS / POLYMARKET
UK holds a snap general election before Mar 2027
C+ CONFIDENCE
MARKET
18.0%
MODEL
27.0%
EDGE
+9.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Polling base rate, last 60 days (gov −9 pts)
↑ 54%
Betting volume regime vs. 3mo (3.2× normal)
↑ 31%
Historical comparable timing (post-budget cycle)
↓ 42%
Party-leader public statements (PM denies)
↓ 26%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 21% – 33%
BRIER (POLITICS) 0.209
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.006
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 142
We have measurable edge in politics over 142 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-04 | UK general election before end 2024 | YES | 79% |
| 2019-12-12 | UK snap election in 2019 | YES | 65% |
| 2017-06-08 | UK snap election in 2017 | YES | 71% |