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RESEARCH / CRYPTO / KALSHI
Solana trades above $200 at any point in July 2026
B CONFIDENCE
MARKET
51.0%
MODEL
49.0%
EDGE
−2.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Current spot $174 (needs +15%)
↑ 42%
SOL/BTC ratio at 5mo low
↓ 33%
Network fee growth +18% MoM
↑ 28%
Realized vol elevated (annualized 71%)
↑ 31%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 43% – 55%
BRIER (CRYPTO) 0.196
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.028
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 248
We have no statistically meaningful edge in crypto yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-15 | SOL above $200 in Mar 2024 | YES | 62% |
| 2025-01-15 | SOL above $250 in Jan 2025 | NO | 34% |
| 2024-12-20 | SOL above $200 in Dec 2024 | YES | 77% |