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RESEARCH / POLITICS / POLYMARKET
Democrats retake the US House in the 2026 midterm
B CONFIDENCE
MARKET
58.0%
MODEL
64.0%
EDGE
+6.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Generic-ballot polling D+3.1 (60-day avg)
↑ 55%
Incumbent presidential approval (40d window)
↑ 48%
Recruitment gap in toss-up districts
↑ 32%
Redistricting effects in NY/NC
↓ 34%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 58% – 70%
BRIER (POLITICS) 0.209
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.006
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 142
We have measurable edge in politics over 142 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-06 | Dems retake House 2018 midterm | YES | 78% |
| 2022-11-08 | Dems hold House 2022 midterm | NO | 31% |
| 2010-11-02 | GOP retakes House 2010 midterm | YES | 83% |