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RESEARCH / POLITICS / KALSHI
ByteDance divests TikTok US operations before Jan 1, 2027
B- CONFIDENCE
MARKET
41.0%
MODEL
34.0%
EDGE
−7.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Court timeline pushed to Q4 hearings
↓ 46%
ByteDance public stance unchanged 8 mo
↓ 39%
Executive deal speculation (NLP score)
↑ 27%
Bipartisan congressional pressure index
↑ 34%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 28% – 40%
BRIER (POLITICS) 0.209
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.006
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 142
We have measurable edge in politics over 142 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-24 | PAFACA signed into law | YES | 71% |
| 2025-01-19 | TikTok ban takes effect | NO | 38% |
| 2020-09-14 | Trump-era TikTok forced sale | NO | 42% |