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RESEARCH / TECH / MANIFOLD
A major lab publicly claims to have built AGI in 2026
C CONFIDENCE
MARKET
22.0%
MODEL
21.0%
EDGE
−1.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Resolution-criteria ambiguity (rater disagreement)
↓ 51%
Frontier lab marketing tone (NLP, last 90d)
↑ 33%
Benchmark saturation rate (MMLU/HLE/SWE-bench)
↑ 37%
Internal scaling-law softening signals
↓ 28%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 15% – 27%
BRIER (TECH) 0.218
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.004
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 174
We have no statistically meaningful edge in tech yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-15 | GPT-4 declared AGI by OpenAI | NO | 12% |
| 2025-12-31 | AGI claim in 2025 | NO | 18% |
| 2024-12-20 | o3 declared AGI | NO | 22% |