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RESEARCH / CRYPTO / POLYMARKET
ETH market cap exceeds BTC market cap any time in 2026
A CONFIDENCE
MARKET
7.0%
MODEL
6.0%
EDGE
−1.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Current ratio 0.41× BTC mcap (requires +145%)
↓ 51%
Spot ETH/BTC ratio mean-reverting
↓ 34%
L2 fee compression vs. BTC narrative
↑ 22%
Historical max ratio in 5y was 0.85
↓ 31%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 0% – 12%
BRIER (CRYPTO) 0.196
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.028
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 248
We have no statistically meaningful edge in crypto yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-12 | ETH/BTC flippening 2017 | NO | 8% |
| 2021-11-09 | ETH/BTC flippening 2021 | NO | 9% |
| 2025-12-31 | ETH/BTC flippening 2025 | NO | 5% |