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RESEARCH / SPORTS / PRIZEPICKS
Dodgers win the 2026 World Series
C CONFIDENCE
MARKET
16.0%
MODEL
18.0%
EDGE
+2.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
PythagWins pace top-3 MLB-wide
↑ 41%
Rotation injury risk index above median
↓ 33%
Postseason bullpen WAR projection
↑ 28%
Historical 100-win team WS-win rate ~17%
↓ 30%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 12% – 24%
BRIER (SPORTS) 0.241
VS MARKET BASELINE +0.009
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 96
We have no statistically meaningful edge in sports yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | Dodgers win 2024 World Series | YES | 21% |
| 2020-10-27 | Dodgers win 2020 World Series | YES | 28% |
| 2017-11-01 | Dodgers win 2017 World Series | NO | 46% |