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RESEARCH / MACRO / POLYMARKET
ECB cuts deposit rate by ≥25bps at July meeting
B+ CONFIDENCE
MARKET
66.0%
MODEL
74.0%
EDGE
+8.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Eurozone HICP within ECB target band 3 mo
↑ 61%
Bund-Bobl curve pricing −24bp at meeting
↑ 55%
Lagarde post-meeting tone (last 2 pressers)
↑ 38%
Stickier services inflation print Apr
↓ 32%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 68% – 80%
BRIER (MACRO) 0.182
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.029
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 312
We have measurable edge in macro over 312 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-06 | ECB cuts ≥25bps June 2025 | YES | 79% |
| 2024-06-06 | ECB first cut June 2024 | YES | 82% |
| 2025-09-12 | ECB cuts ≥25bps Sep 2025 | YES | 66% |