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RESEARCH / MACRO / POLYMARKET
US enters NBER-defined recession before end of 2026
B+ CONFIDENCE
MARKET
31.0%
MODEL
26.0%
EDGE
−5.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Yield-curve un-inversion completed Q4'25
↓ 49%
Sahm rule trigger probability under 18%
↓ 44%
Layoff announcements above trend (tech)
↑ 33%
Real consumer spending +0.4% MoM
↓ 36%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 20% – 32%
BRIER (MACRO) 0.182
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.029
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 312
We have measurable edge in macro over 312 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-30 | US recession before EOY 2023 | NO | 32% |
| 2024-06-30 | US recession before EOY 2024 | NO | 21% |
| 2020-04-01 | US recession in 2020 | YES | 93% |